When 2026 began, the forecasts for North Texas real estate were optimistic: mortgage rates easing toward the high 5s, prices rising modestly, and buyers who had been waiting on the sidelines finally making their move. Nine months in, some of that played out and some of it did not. From Flower Mound to Southlake to Argyle, homeowners and buyers alike are asking what is actually happening, and what it means for the rest of the year.
Did mortgage rates fall? Did home prices stabilize? Is this still the year to make your move?
If you are a North Texas homeowner, or planning to become one, this outlook is your roadmap. We have updated every figure below with current data: Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey for mortgage rates and Redfin's city market pages for local prices, both read September 16, 2026. Where the original forecast missed, we say so plainly, because a plan built on last year's prediction is not a plan.
Last updated: September 16, 2026.
Will More Homes Sell in 2026 in North Texas?
In part of our footprint, yes. August 2026 closings were up year over year in Flower Mound and Lantana, and down in Southlake, Argyle, and Northlake, so the picture is city by city rather than one regional story.
Over the past couple of years, many buyers and sellers pressed pause because of high interest rates, limited inventory, and general uncertainty. Demand never disappeared. It got delayed. What 2026 has shown is that life events keep moving people even when rates do not cooperate: relocations, a growing household, a downsizing, a job change. The buyers who waited for a rate signal that never came are the ones now re-entering on their own timeline.
What the August 2026 sales counts say
- Flower Mound: 319 homes sold in August 2026, up from 302 a year earlier, selling in a median 27 days versus 31 last year
- Lantana: 69 sold, up from 55, with days on market down from 44 to 35
- Southlake: 119 sold, down from 145, but median days on market improved from 35 to 27
- Argyle: 28 sold, down from 34, with days on market up from 32 to 47
- Northlake: 99 sold, down from 110, with a median 87 days on market as new-construction inventory works through
Source: Redfin city housing market pages, three months ending August 2026, read September 16, 2026. The established markets closest to Dallas and DFW Airport are moving fastest. The newer, builder-heavy markets are moving slower and pricing more aggressively, which is a buyer's opening rather than a warning sign.
Takeaway
2026 is delivering a healthier pace of buying and selling in the core suburbs, with opportunity on both sides depending on where you are and which direction you are moving. If you are selling, learn how our Signature Sales Strategy positions a North Texas home to sell in this market.
Are Mortgage Rates Going Down in 2026?
Not the way the forecasts said they would. As of Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week of September 10, 2026, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.76%, up from 6.71% the week before and up from 6.35% a year ago. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.09%.
The original version of this outlook, written in October 2025, repeated the consensus forecast that rates would slowly decline into the low 6s or high 5s by the end of 2026. That has not happened. The September 2026 reading is higher than the same week in 2025, not lower. We are updating the guidance to match reality: plan around the rate you can get today, not the rate a forecast promised.
Why this still matters
- Even a quarter-point move changes a monthly payment by roughly $100 on a $600,000 loan, so rate shopping and lender fees matter more than ever
- Rates that stay in the 6s keep some sellers locked into their existing loans, which is part of why inventory in the established suburbs remains tight and days on market stay short
- A well-priced, move-in-ready home still draws multiple showings in Flower Mound and Southlake even at today's rates, because the buyers who are active now are serious, not speculative
Mortgage payment example on a $600,000 loan
Principal and interest only, 30-year fixed, rounded. Taxes and insurance are extra and vary by city and exemption.
Interest rate | Estimated monthly payment |
|---|---|
7.00% | $3,992 |
6.76% (Freddie Mac PMMS, September 10, 2026) | $3,896 |
6.50% | $3,792 |
6.25% | $3,694 |
6.00% | $3,597 |
5.75% | $3,501 |
Takeaway
The earlier you prepare, the better positioned you are to act on the right home rather than on the rate headline. If rates do ease later, a refinance is available; the house you passed on is not. For a deeper look at the rate question, read why experts expected rates to drop in 2026 and whether now is a bad time to buy. Then use the BlueFuse Buyer Blueprint to get pre-approved and ready.
Are Home Prices Expected to Rise or Fall in 2026?
Both, depending on the city. Across our footprint, prices for the three months ending August 2026 rose year over year in Northlake and Flower Mound and softened in Southlake, Lantana, and Argyle. There is no crash anywhere in the data; there is normalization after several very strong years.
What this means for you
- Prices are not crashing. Most North Texas markets are simply settling after the 2020 to 2022 run-up.
- Established communities with short days on market, such as Flower Mound and Southlake at 27 days, are holding or growing value.
- Equity continues to build for long-time homeowners, especially at the luxury price points, and the sellers who price to the current comps are the ones going under contract in the first two weeks.
Local price snapshot
Redfin, all home types, median sale price for the three months ending August 2026 versus the same period in 2025. Read September 16, 2026.
Community | Median sale price, Aug 2026 | Change vs. 2025 | Median days on market |
|---|---|---|---|
Southlake | $1,349,607 | -2.6% | 27 |
Argyle | $809,464 | -9.8% | 47 |
Flower Mound | $639,577 | +4.0% | 27 |
Lantana | $624,587 | -3.9% | 35 |
Northlake | $574,620 | +10.0% | 87 |
A note on the older version of this table: it listed round "average 2025" prices with no source. Those figures have been replaced with the Redfin medians above so you can check them yourself. Argyle's drop looks dramatic but sits on 28 August sales, so a handful of estate closings swings the median; watch the trend over several months before reading too much into one figure.
Takeaway
2026 is offering more price stability than the boom years, which helps both buyers and sellers plan with confidence. If you want to know what your own home would bring in this market, request a free home valuation and we will build it from live comps, not a website estimate.
How Should You Prepare for the Rest of 2026?
Whether you are buying or selling this fall, the smartest thing you can do is prepare now. The households that get their ducks in a row in September and October are the ones who move on their terms in the fourth quarter and the spring of 2027.
For sellers
- Get a real valuation and market analysis built from August and September comps, not a spring number.
- Plan updates or repairs now. The homes selling in 27 days in Flower Mound and Southlake are the move-in-ready ones.
- Decide whether you are selling and buying at the same time, because that sequence changes the plan. Our guide to selling and buying at the same time in Flower Mound walks through the options.
For buyers
- Get pre-approved and lock in rate guidance with a local lender who will quote you at today's 6.7%, not a hoped-for 5.9%.
- Clarify your must-haves and your target neighborhoods. Our Northwest DFW buyer's guide covers every city we serve.
- If you own a home with a low rate, read why so many homeowners are giving up their 3% mortgage rate before you decide waiting is free.
This is where local strategy and a proven process make the difference between a stressful move and a clean one.
Takeaway
Success in the rest of 2026 starts with preparation today, and we are here to guide it.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will mortgage rates fall below 6% in 2026?
Based on the data so far, it is unlikely. Freddie Mac's survey put the 30-year fixed at 6.76% for the week of September 10, 2026, higher than a year earlier. A drop below 6% by December would require a move of more than three-quarters of a point in about three months. Plan around today's rate and treat any decline as a bonus.
Is 2026 a good year to sell in North Texas?
In the established suburbs, yes. Flower Mound and Southlake homes sold in a median 27 days for the three months ending August 2026, and Flower Mound closings were up year over year. Pricing to current comps is the difference between a fast sale and a stale listing.
Are home prices dropping in North Texas?
In some cities, modestly. For the three months ending August 2026, Redfin shows Southlake down 2.6%, Lantana down 3.9%, and Argyle down 9.8% year over year, while Flower Mound rose 4.0% and Northlake rose 10.0%. That is normalization, not a crash.
Should I wait to buy until rates fall further?
Not necessarily. Rates have moved up, not down, since this outlook was first written. If the right home appears and you are prepared, buying now and refinancing later if rates ease is a sound plan. Waiting on a forecast has cost buyers a full year of equity and choice.
What is the mortgage payment on a $600,000 loan at today's rate?
About $3,896 per month in principal and interest at 6.76%, the Freddie Mac average for the week of September 10, 2026, on a 30-year fixed loan. Property taxes and insurance are additional.
Which North Texas suburb is holding value best in 2026?
Flower Mound, with a median sale price up 4.0% year over year and a median 27 days on market for the three months ending August 2026 (Redfin). Northlake posted a larger gain (+10.0%) but on a slower, new-construction-heavy market with 87 median days on market.
Where did the original 2026 forecast miss?
Mainly on rates. The October 2025 version of this article expected rates in the high 5s by late 2026; the September 2026 reading is 6.76%. The price call, modest movement rather than a crash, has held up, and the call that life events would keep people moving has held up too.
Let's Build Your Future Together
The 2026 housing picture in North Texas brings clarity, stability, and opportunity, especially if you are ready to take the next step with a plan built on today's numbers.
Whether you are selling a luxury home in Southlake, moving into Lewisville ISD in Flower Mound, or simply curious what your home is worth, our team is ready to help with expert strategy, clear communication, and faith-driven service.
Ready to talk? Schedule a free consultation with Brian White. Wondering what your home is worth? Request a customized property valuation report built from live comps.
About the Author
Brian White is the founder of BlueFuse Group at eXp Realty, serving Flower Mound, Southlake, Argyle, Northlake, Highland Village, Lantana, and North Texas's most sought-after suburbs. Licensed and full-time since 2014, Brian has closed more than $200M in career sales volume and serves 50+ families each year, with 300+ families served over his career. He was ranked among the Top 20 eXp agents in Texas (2024), and his team was voted Top Real Estate Team in Denton County (2023).
Brian specializes in luxury homes, relocation, and helping families sell and buy at the same time. Together with his wife, Tisha, he leads a team known for trusted systems like the Signature Sales Strategy and the BlueFuse Buyer Blueprint, built to simplify every step of the process. Through his blog, weekly market updates, and the Moving to Dallas YouTube channel, Brian helps families make smarter real estate decisions, always putting REALationships over transactions.
Email [email protected] or call or text 817-646-4244.
