Is the Housing Market Going To Crash? Here’s What the Experts (and the Data) Actually Say
Between conflicting headlines and economic uncertainty, it's no surprise folks around Flower Mound and Southlake are asking: “Is the market about to crash?” It's a fair question — and one we hear often. But when you look past the fear-based headlines and dive into what the experts are actually saying, a very different picture emerges. One rooted in data, long-term trends, and steady growth — not panic.
Are Home Prices About To Drop?
If you've been scrolling through social media or flipping through headlines lately, you’ve probably seen the doom-and-gloom predictions: “Housing crash coming soon!” or “Prices about to plummet!”
Let’s clear the air with some real data.
The truth is, the numbers don’t support a crash — they point to slow, steady appreciation.
Sure, not every market is created equal. Some areas will see prices rise faster than others. Some may level off or dip slightly. But nationally, home values are projected to rise — not fall — over the next five years.
What Do the Experts Actually Say About Home Prices?
Direct Answer: Over 100 housing economists agree: home prices will continue to rise through 2029, not crash.
That’s straight from the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) by Fannie Mae. Each quarter, this report gathers insights from top real estate analysts and economists across the country.
Their consensus? Home values are expected to climb year over year through at least 2029.
Let’s break it down:
📊 Three forecast categories:
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Average projections call for a 15% increase by the end of 2029.
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Optimistic experts expect a 26% gain.
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Even the most pessimistic forecasts show a 5% price increase.
Key takeaway: Not one of these expert groups is predicting a crash. Not even a decline.
How Does This Compare to a “Normal” Housing Market?
Direct Answer: Forecasted gains of 2–3.5% annually are slightly below the 25-year average but reflect a healthier, more stable market.
For context, average annual appreciation over the past 25 years has hovered around 4–5%. So while today's projections are a bit lower, they’re also more sustainable than the unsustainable surges we saw during the pandemic (think 15–20% annual jumps in some areas).
This signals something important: We’re not crashing — we’re normalizing. And in real estate, that’s a good thing.
Takeaway: Slower growth means greater long-term stability and less volatility for both buyers and sellers.
Why Aren’t Home Prices Crashing Like in 2008?
Direct Answer: There simply aren’t enough homes to meet buyer demand — and that’s keeping prices stable.
A big reason for the 2008 crash was oversupply. Builders overbuilt, lending standards collapsed, and inventory flooded the market.
Today? We have the opposite problem.
Despite affordability challenges from higher interest rates, we still have a major housing shortage — especially here in North Texas. Flower Mound, Southlake, and surrounding suburbs remain highly desirable, and inventory continues to lag behind buyer demand.
Add in record-low mortgage defaults, tighter lending standards, and a resilient job market… and it’s easy to see why today’s housing market is nothing like 2008.
Takeaway: Supply and demand fundamentals remain strong — and that’s a key reason home values are holding steady.
What Does This Mean for North Texas Buyers and Sellers?
Direct Answer: If you’re waiting for a crash to make your move, you may be waiting forever.
For buyers, delaying could mean paying more down the road as prices (and possibly rates) tick upward.
For sellers, today’s low inventory means your home may stand out more — and sell faster — than if you wait for a more competitive market.
Local insights:
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In Flower Mound, median home prices are up year-over-year and days on market are staying low.
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Southlake continues to attract relocation buyers seeking top-rated schools and luxury living — creating consistent demand.
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Lantana, Argyle, and Highland Village are seeing increased interest from move-up buyers who want space, privacy, and community.
Takeaway: The window for strategic buying or selling is open — but waiting for a “crash” may mean missing your moment.
FAQs: What Buyers and Sellers Are Asking
Q: Will home prices drop in 2025?
A: According to national forecasts, no. Prices are expected to continue rising — slowly and steadily.
Q: Is now a good time to buy a home in Flower Mound or Southlake?
A: If you're financially ready, yes. With prices projected to rise, waiting could cost more in the long run.
Q: What if rates stay high?
A: Even with higher rates, experts expect appreciation. You can always refinance later — but you can’t go back and buy at today’s price.
Q: How is this different from 2008?
A: Today’s market is undersupplied and built on stronger lending standards — there’s no wave of foreclosures or oversupply coming.
The Bottom Line: Don’t Let Fear Steal Your Opportunity
The question isn’t if home prices will rise — it’s how much.
If fear of a crash has been holding you back, it’s time to trade headlines for real data. Whether you’re buying your first home, upsizing to fit your family, or planning to sell and cash in your equity, knowing what’s really happening in today’s market is key.
📞 Let’s Build Your Future Together
When it comes to navigating today’s market, you don’t need to go it alone. I help families all over North Texas make confident, informed real estate decisions — and I’d be honored to help you do the same.
✅ Ready to buy or sell in Flower Mound, Southlake, or nearby?
✅ Need clarity on your home’s value or future strategy?
Let’s have a quick conversation — no pressure, just real answers.
About the Author
Brian White is a top-ranked REALTOR® and founder of the BlueFuse Group at eXp Realty, serving Flower Mound, Southlake, and Dallas–Fort Worth’s most sought-after suburbs. A licensed professional and full-time agent since 2014, Brian has built a reputation for guiding clients with integrity, faith-driven leadership, and a mastery of luxury real estate markets.
Ranked among the Top 20 eXp agents in Texas, and voted the Top Real Estate team in Denton County, Brian’s career production exceeds $200M in total sales volume, with an annual goal of helping 65+ families buy or sell their homes. His expertise centers on luxury listings, relocation, and move-up buyers in prestigious communities such as Flower Mound, Southlake, Highland Village, Argyle, and Lantana.
Brian leads the BlueFuse Group, a trusted team built with his wife, Tisha, and a growing network of talented agents. Together, they’ve created proven systems like the Signature Sales Strategy for sellers and the BLUEFUSE Buyer Blueprint for buyers — frameworks designed to bring clarity, confidence, and results to every client experience.
In addition to sales, Brian is a consistent content creator. He publishes weekly blogs and market updates, along with videos on his YouTube channel Moving to Dallas, where thousands of viewers learn about local neighborhoods, cost of living, and smart real estate strategies. His approachable, data-driven style reinforces his reputation as a trusted voice in North Texas real estate.
Whether you’re searching for the best Flower Mound REALTOR® to sell your home or a knowledgeable guide to help you relocate, Brian White delivers a calm, confident, and expert approach — always putting REALationships over transactions.
Partner with a Top Flower Mound Real Estate Team
Buying or selling a home in Flower Mound, Southlake or greater DFW? Partner with an experienced local expert to ensure your next move is seamless from contract to close.
As one of the top real estate teams in North Texas, Brian White and the BlueFuse Group deliver world-class advice, clear communication, and results you can count on.
📞 Ready to take the next step? Contact Brian White — your Flower Mound real estate expert.
💡 Wondering what your home is worth? I create customized Property Valuation Reports to help you understand your equity and opportunities in today’s market.
📍 Visit www.bluefuserealty.com
📧 [email protected]
📞 817-646-4244
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